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Joined: 2008-07-01
Posts: 272 | |
Posted at: 2010-03-09 16:34 hrs IST
by Rtn PP PHF Mohanraaj K.M. ( Tirupur North )
Past President
Post Subject: A reason for hope
The beliefs of these peacemakers that democracy, improved communication, better education, and gains in health are leading the world down a path to peace are built on a sturdier foundation than optimism and hope. Despite the suffering that goes on daily for people living in or, in the case of refugees, outside of one of the 16 countries where UN peacekeeping operations are underway, there is strong evidence that the world is becoming more peaceful.
According to the Human security Report 2005 a research project based at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada after the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, armed conflicts declined by more than 40 percent, and the deadliest variety (those involving more than 1,000 battle deaths) dropped by 80 percent. "With the security council no longer paralyzed by cold war politics, the UN spearheaded a veritable explosion of conflict prevention, peacemaking and post - conflict peace - building activities," the report said. Even with the genocides in Rwanda in 1994 and Bosnia in 1995, there was a decline of 80 percent in mass killings due to religion, ethnicity, or political beliefs.
The report indicated that since the beginning of the 1990s, "more conflicts have ended in negotiated settlements and fewer in victories, in large part because peacemaking efforts are increasingly successful." The downside is that nearly a third of those agreements are broken within five years.
It also confirmed an association between armed conflict and poverty, noting that "higher per capital income tends to mean a stronger state, which means more resources to crush rebellions or to address the grievances that drive them."
The connection between peace and democracy is supported by a finding that the decline in conflicts has been accompanied by an increase in the percentage of democratic countries - from 26 percent in 1975 to 58 percent in 2005.
"Countries that are less violent do tend to be democratic, "says Steven Pinker, an acclaimed professor of psychology at Harvard University and author of the book The Better Angels of our Nature: How we Became Less Violent, due out in 2011. Pinker says the idea that the world may be more peaceful than ever before still comes as a surprise to many people.
" Contrary to the popular belief that we are living in extraordinarily violent times, our ancestors were far more violent than we are," says Pinker, lending a long - term perspective. "Today we are probably living in the most peaceful time in our species' existence."
Egeland, speaking to Rotarians and alumni of the Rotary world peace Fellowships program at the 2009 Rotary World peace Symposium in Birmingham, England, pointed out that "conflict in this day and age is mostly internal - there are civil wars, tribal groups fighting each other, often religious or ethnic or cultural rebellions, such as in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
"Those who become the peace makers of the future are not going to negotiate between major countries. They are going to be working in complex situations - they must concentrate on alleviating the suffering of the civilian population, the women and children who are the victims of war."
The view that major conflicts between states are in steady decline has been advanced by John Mueller, a noted professor of Political science at Ohio state University and author of Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to AI Qaeda. According to Mueller, regional conflict has diminished. In Africa, most violent activity, while no less painful for the people who are subjected to it, is closer to "criminal enterprise" based on personal gain and corruption rather than to civil war waged for political reasons.
Not only have we seen an end to war between developed countries, but the threats posed by terrorists also are overblown, Mueller says. "The likelihood of an individual or a terrorist group setting off a nuclear device is microscopic," he explains. "I'm distinctly in the minority in this opinion." But he notes the comfort in his convictions: "Even people who think I'm wrong hope I'm rights."
Mueller says that if he is correct in his belief, then "one of the most interesting things in the history of the human race may be taking place. Assuming it's true, it's astoundingly important."
Does this mean that we really are on the road to peace?
"It would be crazy to say for certain, but the pattern is there," says Mueller. "Let's put it this way: It looks pretty good." | |
